‘Oppenheimer’ is at the top of my Oscar picks
When stories of dwindling TV ratings upstage news about who actually won Academy Awards, it’s time to shake things up with the annual Oscars telecast. And the academy and its partner, ABC, have responded by … starting the show an hour earlier! That’s it? It’s sort of like your transmission going kaput and you react by changing the motor oil. So, don’t be surprised if the number of households tuning in to the 96th rendition Sunday night at 7 (EDT) continues to dwindle.
If there’s any optimism among the suits at ABC, it’s predicated on the potential remnants of last summer’s box office-saving Barbenheimer phenomenon. Counting on that movement’s longevity extending eight months after inception is a pipe dream at best, especially in an age when public interest swivels in a nanosecond. More so given how “Barbie” was heavily snubbed when nominations were announced way back in January.
Conspicuously missing were the names of the film’s sensational star, Margot Robbie, and its inventive director, Greta Gerwig. That stung. But as a small consolation prize, supporting players Ryan Gosling and America Ferrera did make the cut, as did the creators of the movie’s jaw-dropping sets and costumes. Oh, so did Billie Eilish’s pitch-perfect theme song, the ethereal “What Was I Made For?” But that’s a piddly haul considering the flick not only had cash registers ringing the world over, but also incidentally saved a moribund summer movie season.
With that in mind, Barbie, Ken and Skipper must be flabbergasted by the other half of Barbenheimer, the explosive “Oppenheimer,” getting all the love with a leading 13 nominations. Not only that, the film’s writer-director-producer, Christopher Nolan, and its star, Cillian Murphy, are heavy favorites to win. The movie itself is almost assured of securing Best Picture, and it could well snag statues for cinematography, editing, score and supporting actor Robert Downey Jr.
A rather one-sided relationship, I’d say. But worry not for the feelings of the “Barbie” crowd, they’ve already won what matters most: the box office, hauling in nearly two-thirds of a billion dollars in the U.S. alone. So, anything else is just gravy. I guess you could say that when it comes to Barbenheimer, practically everybody wins. But what about the other movies NOT named Barbenheimer? Do any of them have a ghost of a chance at snagging a trophy or two? Let’s take a look and see.
In the Best Picture race, it would be a complete shock if “Oppenheimer” doesn’t triumph, but if there were to be an upset, it would come from either Martin Scorsese’s epic “Killers of the Flower Moon,” or the sentimental favorite, Celine Song’s heart-wrenching tale of star-crossed lovers in “Past Lives,” which won Best Film at the Independent Spirit Awards two weeks ago. But don’t hold your breath.
As for Best Director, there’s about a one percent chance that Nolan’s name will not be announced. But when it comes to Best Adapted Screenplay, the esteemed Brit will face stiff competition from, you guessed it, “Barbie,” and its writers Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach. If it were up to me, I’d hand the trophy to Cord Jefferson for his clever lampoon of racial stereotypes in “American Fiction.” But I predict the winner will be Tony McNamara for “Poor Things,” an over-the-top experiment I thought was an incomprehensible mess.
That brings me to Best Actress, where “Poor Things” star, Emma Stone, is a slight favorite to top the far more deserving Lily Gladstone from “Killers of the Flower Moon.” A victory by the latter would make her the first Native American to ever win an Academy Award. I’d love that outcome, but Oscar voters are likely to go for Stone, largely because she “fearlessly” displayed full-frontal nudity in an otherwise inane endeavor about a grown woman with a baby’s brain evolving into an astute feminist. Didn’t Carol Baker already do something similar, with her clothes on, in Elia Kazan’s “Babydoll”?
For Best Actor, my sentimental favorite is Paul Giamatti for his excellent portrayal of a pompous prep school professor in Alexander Payne’s heartfelt “The Holdovers.” Not only was Giamatti fabulous in the role, but he’s been equally solid in dozens of other films over the years, none of them recognized, including Payne’s “Sideways.” I usually recoil at Oscars going to actors for “lifetime achievement,” but in this case, I make a huge exception. If it happens, I’ll be thrilled, but I think the award will go to a well-deserving Murphy for his equally outstanding work as the father of the atomic bomb, J. Robert Oppenheimer.
His “Oppenheimer” co-star, Downey Jr., will surely join him in hoisting Oscar as the winner of Best Supporting Actor. In portraying the hawkish Secretary of Commerce Lewis Strauss, Downey was not only a dead-ringer for the real guy, but he also delivered the best performance of his roller-coaster career. Yet, I’m a bit partial to Sterling K. Brown, fabulous as the insightful but erratic gay brother of Jeffrey Wright’s Monk in the wonderful “American Fiction.” But with wins at all the other major awards shows, this is clearly Downey’s year.
For Best Supporting Actress it’s no contest, with Da’Vine Joy Randolph going undefeated on the awards circuit for her wrenching portrait of a grieving mother in “The Holdovers.” No one else in this category comes close to her in quality and technique. Plus, her heartfelt acceptance speeches have been things of beauty. But in the unlikely event of a major upset, look no further than America Ferrera, sensational as an unassuming feminist in “Barbie.” In any other year, she’d win just for her moving two-minute soliloquy on how hard it is to be a woman in a world where double standards prevail.
That monologue was expected to help land “Barbie” the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, but for some odd reason, at the last minute the film’s producers asked to be relocated to the much more competitive adapted category. For this brain fart, Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, the authors of the Cannes-winning “Anatomy of a Fall,” thank you. They might have won anyway for their uncompromising examination of a marriage in collapse, but this pretty much assures a repeat of their victory at the BAFTAs, the UK’s version of the Oscars. If there is to be an upset, it’s likely to come courtesy of Celine Song for “Past Lives,” or David Hemingson for “The Holdovers.”
In an especially weak Animation category, it will be a close battle between the gorgeously drawn “The Boy and the Heron” and “Spider-Man: Across the Multi-Verse,” a movie I thought dumb, belabored and – as a person on the spectrum – a complete assault on the senses. If it were up to me, and it’s not, I would not hesitate for a second to hand the Oscar to the funny, clever and absolutely shattering “Robot Dreams,” an ideal double bill with “Past Lives.”
For Best International Feature, my choice – and a heavy favorite to win – is the disturbing “The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer’s haunting depiction of a Nazi family seemingly oblivious to the mass executions taking place just yards away at Auschwitz. The film might have faced stiff competition if France had selected the stupendous “Anatomy of a Fall” as its Oscar entry instead of “The Taste of Things.” But …
Among the finalists for Best Documentary, it will be an equally easy victory for “20 Days in Mariupol,” an unflinching up-close look at the evil Putin unleashed on innocent civilians, including scores of children, in the first days of his unwarranted invasion of Ukraine. I found the film so difficult to watch that I had to frequently turn away. The acts of atrocity and mass murder are unspeakable in a film that should be mandatory viewing for our log-jammed House of Representatives.
Well, there you have it, my picks and predictions for this year’s one-hour-earlier Academy Awards. Will all of my selections bear fruit? Don’t bet on it, but if you do, don’t blame me if you lose the office Oscar pool. After all, I’m just a professional. What do I know? Don’t answer that.
