Be prepared for a more solemn Oscars on Sunday
Another long, drawn-out awards season mercifully reaches an end Sunday night with the 97th rendition of the Academy Awards in fire-ravaged Los Angeles. Repeating last year’s earlier start time of 7 p.m. (EST), expect numerous tributes to the Land of Dreams and the resilience of its citizenry in the wake of January’s devastating wildfires that leveled large swaths of moviedom’s home base.
Between winners dutifully thanking their lawyers, agents and all-important publicists, the ABC broadcast will include a plethora of film montages and musical numbers celebrating cinema’s century-long symbiotic relationship with the city and its people. In other words, expect a longer-than-usual sit if you’re determined to stay awake long enough to hear the call for Best Picture at approximately 11 p.m.
One of the dumber moves on the part of the show’s overly cautious (We wouldn’t want to offend anyone.) producers is the decision to axe the live performances of the five tunes nominated for Best Song. Yes, these serenades can be tedious, but may also contain memorable moments, such as last year when Ryan Gosling brought down the house with “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”; and five years earlier when Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper nearly self-combusted with their sexy rendition of “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born.” Can singing a song really be deemed disrespectful? Or, might it just be an excuse to shield us from the reality that this year’s five nominees pretty much suck? Alas, the year’s best song, “Compress/Repress” by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, wasn’t even nominated.
Enough protesting. It’s my task to report on the films and music that ARE nominated. And, of course, who and what I think will win. I would like to note that for the first time in my 35-year career, I can proudly say that I’ve seen EVERY nominated film. Whether that’s an accomplishment or self-torture, I’ll leave it to you to decide. In the meantime, here is how I think each race for the top prize plays out.
First, let’s dispense with the no-brainers. Those would be the outcomes that qualify as forgone conclusions. I’m talking about Kieran Culkin for Best Supporting Actor in “A Real Pain”; Zoe Saldana for Best Supporting Actress in “Emilia Perez”; “No Other Land” for Best Documentary; “Conclave” for Best Adapted Screenplay; “Wicked” for Best Production Design; “Dune: Part Two” for Best Visual Effects; “The Brutalist” for Best Score; and “El Mal” from “Emilia Perez” for Best Song. All are locks.
Up until last Sunday’s upset by Timothée Chalamet at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the category of Best Actor also looked as sure as death and taxes. But “The Brutalist’s” Adrien Brody got a brutal slap in the face when his name wasn’t called for the first time this awards season. Might those whispers about some post-production architecting of an AI-enhanced Hungarian accent be catching up with him? Or, are voters finally coming around to the fact Chalemet was otherworldly with his portrayal of music icon Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.”
So, which one will prevail on Sunday? Chalamet or Brody? My heart is with the former, but I expect the latter will triumph because “The Brutalist” is judged to be the more serious motion picture. Bullpucky! I contend it was a far more impressive feat on the part of Chalamet, who in addition to nailing Dylan’s surly persona, flawlessly mimicked his singing and playing. Note: If Chalamet does win, at 29 he will be the youngest recipient ever, edging out by mere days … you guessed it, Adrien Brody, also 29 when he captured the prize for 2002’s “The Pianist.”
Best Actress was also believed to be Demi Moore’s to lose. But then came Mikey Madison’s unexpected win two weeks ago at the BAFTAs (the British Oscars) for her breakout turn as the bride of a Russian oligarch’s son in Sean Baker’s front-running “Anora.” If it were up to me, the award would go to the most deserving. That would be Marianne Jean-Baptiste for her role as an angry London housewife in Mike Leigh’s hilarious “Hard Truths.” But shockingly, she was not even nominated. The spot that belonged to her, IMO, was usurped by Moore’s unremarkable work in the vastly overrated, Hollywood-hates-women-over-40 shocker, “The Substance.”
To add insult to injury, Moore is likely to win; not because she earned it, but because Hollywood loves a comeback story (Exhibit A: Renee Zellweger for “Judy.”). I also contend she was more of a supporting player in a film dominated by Margaret Qualley. Of the five women who ARE on the list, I believe Fernanda Torres is most merited. After all, she was the heart and soul of likely Best International Feature winner, “I’m Still Here,” playing a mother fighting to keep her family together in the wake of her husband’s forced disappearance during Brazil’s military dictatorship. I’d go as far as to declare her the best of all 20 nominees on this year’s ballot. If not her, I’d go with Madison, who could easily prove the dark horse. Stay tuned.
As for “I’m Still Here,” which also scored a surprise nomination for Best Picture, I think its bid for Best International Feature will benefit from the “Emilia Perez” backlash triggered by star Karla Sofía Gascón’s racist tweets concerning Muslims as well as the 2020 murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police. Maligned by critics, but loved by Oscar voters, “Emilia Perez” (with a record-tying 13 nominations) may well hold on to claim the title that was once considered a certainty. But because “I’m Still Here” has all the momentum, I believe it will carry the day. But keep an eye out for the fast-charging “Flow,” the marvelous dialogue-free, animals-in-peril picture also up for Best Animated Feature. The little movie that could from Latvia is winning hearts and votes as it stages a credible 11th-hour bid.
As much as I love “Flow” and want desperately for it to win Best Animated Feature, I don’t think it stands a chance against the inferior, but far better-funded, “The Wild Robot.” I’d get behind “Robot,” too, if not for its disappointing third act when what started as a beautiful treatise on the preciousness of our environment deteriorated into a gratuitous clash of metal that left me as cold as titanium.
“The Wild Robot” also is up for Score and Sound, but it’s likely to lose to “The Brutalist” and “Dune: Part Two,” respectively. The former is also among the nominees for Best Original Screenplay, where it faces stiff competition from both Sean Baker’s “Anora” and Jesse Eisenberg’s “A Real Pain.” It’s said that “The Brutalists'” 215-minute runtime is proving taxing for restless Oscar voters, thus harming its chances. So, it comes down to Baker and Eisenberg, who also serve as directors of their respective babies. Both flicks are also darkly tinged comedies with an Eastern European component. As much as I want Eisenberg to win, it looks like Baker will be adding to his collection of hardware, which also includes a statuette from the all-important Writers Guild.
As if in lockstep, the Directors Guild also honored Baker with its top prize, making him the heavy favorite to also win Best Director for “Anora.” If there’s to be an upset, and I highly doubt there will be, it will come from either James Mangold for “A Complete Unknown” or former front-runner Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist.” To them, I say, don’t bother preparing an exhaustive acceptance speech.
That takes us to the moment you’ve loooong been waiting for: Best Picture. There’s actually some real drama here. The house money is on “Anora,” which was named film of the year by the Producers Guild, always a reliable bellwether for the Oscar. Then there’s the fact that in the entire history of the Academy, only one picture that swept the three guild awards – directors, writers and producers – as “Anora” has done, didn’t win Best Picture. The exception was “Brokeback Mountain,” robbed by the vastly subordinate “Crash.” I guess the Academy just wasn’t ready for kissing cowboys.
But not so fast. “Conclave” has been making a late charge through the field, winning Best Picture at the BAFTAs two weeks ago and last week scoring Best Ensemble at the SAGs, the guild’s Best Picture equivalent. Yet, “Anora” took home the trophy at the Independent Spirit Awards, also last week. Does “Conclave” have a prayer? A small one, and one supposes it has God on its side. But when last I checked, God wasn’t a member of the Academy. So, I confidently – well, pretty assuredly, anyway – predict that “Anora,” and its satirical takedown of Putin’s Russia, will go home shouting “Da” at the top of its subversive lungs.
Oops, I almost forgot to mention this year’s host, Conan O’Brien, taking over from Jimmy Kimmel. He has a herculean undertaking facing him as he walks the fine line between being funny and being respectful in a town where many of its inhabitants aren’t in a laughing mood. But I do expect there to be fewer Trump digs than if Kimmel were donning the tux. Will O’Brien hit the target? Oscar-host history tells us he’ll likely bomb. Will it be as bad as getting booted off “The Tonight Show” faster than you can say, “Jay Leno”? Probably not. But my expectations are low. Ditto for the show as a whole. After more than two months of Hollywood’s annual exercise in self-adulation, I can hardly bear the thought of another egotistical celeb exuberantly thanking his or her “management team.” Please make it stop!
My projected winners in the categories not listed above:
Cinematography: “The Brutalist”
Costume: “Wicked”
Editing: “Conclave”
Sound: “Dune: Part Two”
Makeup and hairstyling: “The Substance”
Animated Short: “Wander to Wonder”
Live Action Short: “Anuja
”Documentary Short: “I Am Ready, Warden”
