Oscar showdown: Will vampires or radicals prevail?
Are you psyched for Sunday night’s Oscars? Nah, neither am I. This awards season has been much, much, much too long. So long that I’ve pretty much forgotten what distinguishes one movie or performance from another. Still, we’ll no doubt subject ourselves to yet another grotesque display of martyrdom. You hate yourself for succumbing to the yearly habit, but you’d hate yourself more if you didn’t tune into ABC at 7 p.m. (EDT) to sample the opening monologue by returning host Conan O’Brien.
He was excellent last year, striking the perfect balance of comedy and empathy for the Los Angelenos who’d suffered through a nightmarish winter in which wildfires burned entire neighborhoods to the ground. So, with the restraints off, imagine the possibilities for this year. True, there is that war that isn’t a war in Iran, but given the intense unpopularity of that aimless aggression, expect O’Brien to take more than a few swipes at the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. He may also deliver a quip or two about having co-starred as a cynical shrink in one of this year’s nominees, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.”
And if viewers had a say, they’d kick the Academy for its bizarre decision to allow only two of the five nominees for Best Song to be performed during the telecast: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” and “I Lied to You” from “Sinners.” Critics say it reeks of favoritism and robs the other nominees of their moment in the spotlight. Particularly perennial non-winner Diane Warren, rudely denied the opportunity to celebrate her 17th nod by singing “Dear Me,” the theme from her documentary “Diane Warren: Relentless.” Alas, her only consolation is taking home the booby prize for extending her record of scoring the most Oscar nominations without a win.
If the Academy can’t be bothered to mark such an amazing (and dubious) feat, it gives you reason to worry that it will also botch the “In Memorium” segment in a year in which we lost so many iconic talents. There are rumors that Barbra Streisand is paying tribute to Robert Redford, her co-star in “The Way We Were,” as well as a nod to Rob Reiner, presented by his “When Harry Met Sally” duo of Meg Ryan and Billy Crystal. But nothing for Robert Duvall and Diane Keaton? We shall see. If handled right, this could be the teary-eyed highlight of the show.
It will certainly garner far more anticipation than who walks off the Dolby Theater stage with the coveted gold statuettes. Per usual, numerous categories in this 98th edition promise little in the way of suspense, with many actors and people considered locks. There will also be an added award, beginning this year, for Best Cast, a category that enabled “Sinners” to land a record 16 nominations. But that can be both a blessing and a curse, considering the “most-nominated” film has often gone home with few or no awards. I’m looking at you, “Emilia Perez” and 1985’s “The Color Purple.”
This year, that is unlikely to be the case, with “Sinners” entering the weekend with the most momentum. How many trophies will the socially conscious vampire flick snap up? I’d say anywhere from two to six, but let’s break it down by category, beginning with Best Supporting Actress, where Wunmi Mosaku is the “Sinners” representative, facing stiff competition from both Amy Madigan as the homicidal Aunt Gladys in “Weapons” and Teyana Taylor as the leftist militant Perfidia in “One Battle After Another.” Mosaku took home the BAFTA, her native Britain’s version of the Oscar, while Taylor won the Golden Globe and Madigan the Actors Guild Award (formerly SAG). So, this one will go down to the wire. And when the envelope is opened, I’m expecting it to be Madigan, partly due to her superb performance, but also out of recognition for her more than 40 years of memorable roles with zero hardware. But don’t be surprised if it’s Mosaku in an upset. If she does win, expect “Sinners” to spend the next three-or-so hours sucking the blood out of its competitors, up and down the slate.
If that indeed happens, Delroy Lindo had better be prepared for what promises to be the loudest ovation of the night when he steps to the podium to claim Best Supporting Actor for his portrayal of irascible Delta Slim in “Sinners.” He’s the sentimental favorite, who, like Madigan, has been at it for decades, depicting memorable characters without reward. But he faces stiff competition from a couple of other old salts in Stellan Skarsgård as the emotionally absent daddy in “Sentimental Value” and Sean Penn as the racist Army colonel desperate to eliminate his Black daughter in “One Battle After Another.” If Penn wins, and he’s already taken home the BAFTA and Actor honors, it will be his third Oscar. But not so fast. I know I’m in the minority on this, but I like Skarsgård to pull the upset. But don’t hold me to it.
For Best Actress, I think Jessie Buckley is a cinch for her overwrought turn as Shakespeare’s grieving wife in “Hamnet,” a performance I found grating at times. If it were up to me, the Oscar would go to either Emma Stone for her riveting turn as a kidnapped CEO in “Bugonia” or Rose Byrne for her amazing, balls-out portrayal of a frazzled mother in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” But both are long shots. This is Buckley’s to lose.
As for Best Actor, I wasn’t a big fan of either Michael B. Jordan as the twin gangsters in “Sinners” nor Timothee Chalemet as the ping-pong prodigy in “Marty Supreme,” but my vote doesn’t count. The ones that do are likely to be split down the middle. So, another down-to-the-wire nail-biter. I keep going back and forth, but if forced to make a choice, it would be Jordan, simply because he took home the Actor two weeks ago, an award that is often a bellwether for the Oscars. Personally, I’d love to hear Ethan Hawke’s name called. In my opinion, his portrayal of the diminutive Broadway lyricist Lorenz Hart was head and shoulders above the rest, alas, in a film that fewer voters saw.
As for the inaugural Best Cast award, it looks to be a showdown between Best Picture rivals, “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” I preferred the latter, but the smart money is on “Sinners.” But you’ll never convince me the combination of Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku, Delroy Lindo, Hailee Stanfield and newcomer Miles Caton is superior to the “One Battle’ crew of Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Teyana Taylor, Chase Infiniti and Benicio Del Toro.
Moving behind the camera for the writing and directing awards, Paul Thomas Anderson is likely to end his 0-12 record at the Oscars by grabbing both Best Director and Best Original Screenplay for his funny, timely satire, “One Battle After Another.” Like Scorsese and Spielberg before him, he won’t win for his best work (that would be “Phantom Thread”), but he’ll finally gain the long-overdue recognition he deserves.
As for Best Original Screenplay, the winner is sure to be Ryan Coogler for “Sinners.” I prefer either “Blue Moon” or “Sentimental Value,” but you won’t convince the Academy, which often opts for the popular choice over the more deserving.
That same M.O. is likely to apply when we get to Best Animated Feature, for which “KPop Demon Hunters” is heavily favored, despite not being all that great. If it were up to me, this would be an intense showdown between “Little Amelie or the Character of Rain” and “Arco,” two gorgeous films with emotional subtexts. Not unlike “Flow,” last year’s upset winner. Might lightning strike two years in a row? One can hope.
Perhaps the toughest category of the night will be Best Documentary Feature, where three pictures are battling tooth and nail. The slim favorite is “The Perfect Neighbor,” but I think “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” and the 10-hankie tearjerker that is “Come See Me In the Good Light” are superior nominees. And I’m not alone in that opinion. So, look for “Mr. Nobody” to pull the upset.
A little guy taking on an authoritarian is likewise at the heart of “The Secret Agent,” the favorite to win Best International Feature. The Brazilian-set dramedy is also nominated for Best Picture, as is its chief competition, Norway’s “Sentimental Value.” Either could win, but watch out for Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident,” the winner of the Palme d’Or at last year’s Cannes Film Festival. It’s certainly the most timely film of the five, given Panahi’s overt criticism of the ruthless theocracy in his native Iran. While I think “The Secret Agent” will win, I’m pulling for “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” the devastating, real-time account of an innocent 6-year-old purposely gunned down by the Israeli army in Gaza. It cost pennies to make, but its visceral impact is priceless.
Last, but not least, what you’ve all been waiting for, the big award of the night, Best Picture. Of the 10 nominees, only two have a real chance at winning: “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” I liked both, but wasn’t bowled over by either. At least they were superior to “Marty Supreme,” “Frankenstein,” “Train Dreams,” “Hamnet” and “F1,” a mindless summer blockheaded blockbuster that shouldn’t even be here. If it were up to me, it would be between “Bugonia” and “The Secret Agent,” with a slight edge to the latter. But back in the real world, “Sinners” appears to have the edge after recently bagging the Actor Award for Best Ensemble, SAG’s equivalent of Best Picture. Supporters of “One Battle” will rightly counter that their movie swept the producer, director and writing guild honors. In other words, a toss-up, and possibly the closest race since “Moonlight” edged out “La La Land” nearly a decade ago. So, flip a coin: heads “Battle”; tails “Sinners.” And for me, it comes up heads. But it could also be tails. And isn’t it nice for once to have a legit excuse for staying up until the end?
Yes, but that also means patiently sitting through the less sexy “craft” categories, many of which are set in stone. Meaning, expect “Frankenstein” to score Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design and Costume Design. For Sound, those rumbling engines from “F1” get the nod, while Editing and Cinematography are destined for “One Battle After Another.” “Sinners” is sure to scoop up Best Original Score, while “Avatar: Fire and Ash” takes home Best Visual Effects. For Best Original Song, “Golden” from “KPop” will successfully complete its awards season sweep. As for the three Short categories, I’m going with “All the Empty Rooms” for Documentary, “Forevergreen” for Animation, and “Two People Exchanging Saliva” for Live Action.
Well, that’s it for me and my predictions. OK, more like guesses. But how about you? What do you think will win? Please feel free to tell me what I’ve gotten wrong and why by dropping a comment below. I look forward to hearing from you. And enjoy the show!
